Long-Term Trends in the Protection Against Severe Courses of COVID-19 by Vaccination.

BACKGROUND: The long-term course of protection against severe COVID-19 courses by vaccine-induced or hybrid immunity in Germany is unclear. METHODS: We studied 146 457 cases aged 60-99 years in the German federal state of Bavaria who were immunized against COVID-19 and tested positive for it from February 2022 to January 2023. We calculated adjusted hazard ratios for a severe course (hospitalization or death due to COVID-19) for different intervals between the onset of full primary or booster immunity and the date of the infection. RESULTS: 3342 (2.3%) severe courses of COVID-19 were observed in the first 60 days after the infection. The risk of a severe course rose with the interval between the onset of immune protection and the infection (adjusted hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals at 6, 9, 12, and 15 months: 1.14 [1.08; 1.20]; 1.33 [1.24; 1.42]; 1.39 [1.25; 1.54]; 1.61 [1.35; 1.93]). The risk rose more slowly when mRNA-based vaccines were used exclusively. In a previous study, we observed 82% initial efficacy in cases aged 60 and above who received a booster vaccination (compared to unvaccinated cases) and an absolute risk reduction of 2.1%. If one extrapolates these findings to the current study, the residual efficacy and absolute risk reduction are found to be approximately 71% and 1.8% (respectively) at 6 months, and 32% and 0.8% at 15 months. CONCLUSION: These results indicate that, during the Omicron wave, the protection of older persons against a severe COVID-19 course gradually declined from six months after vaccination onward. The limitations of this study include confounders that could not be taken into account, possible misclassification of the cause of death, and selection bias due to missing information about vaccination status and severe COVID-19 courses.

Collaborative nowcasting of COVID-19 hospitalization incidences in Germany.

Real-time surveillance is a crucial element in the response to infectious disease outbreaks. However, the interpretation of incidence data is often hampered by delays occurring at various stages of data gathering and reporting. As a result, recent values are biased downward, which obscures current trends. Statistical nowcasting techniques can be employed to correct these biases, allowing for accurate characterization of recent developments and thus enhancing situational awareness. In this paper, we present a preregistered real-time assessment of eight nowcasting approaches, applied by independent research teams to German 7-day hospitalization incidences during the COVID-19 pandemic. This indicator played an important role in the management of the outbreak in Germany and was linked to levels of non-pharmaceutical interventions via certain thresholds. Due to its definition, in which hospitalization counts are aggregated by the date of case report rather than admission, German hospitalization incidences are particularly affected by delays and can take several weeks or months to fully stabilize. For this study, all methods were applied from 22 November 2021 to 29 April 2022, with probabilistic nowcasts produced each day for the current and 28 preceding days. Nowcasts at the national, state, and age-group levels were collected in the form of quantiles in a public repository and displayed in a dashboard. Moreover, a mean and a median ensemble nowcast were generated. We find that overall, the compared methods were able to remove a large part of the biases introduced by delays. Most participating teams underestimated the importance of very long delays, though, resulting in nowcasts with a slight downward bias. The accompanying prediction intervals were also too narrow for almost all methods. Averaged over all nowcast horizons, the best performance was achieved by a model using case incidences as a covariate and taking into account longer delays than the other approaches. For the most recent days, which are often considered the most relevant in practice, a mean ensemble of the submitted nowcasts performed best. We conclude by providing some lessons learned on the definition of nowcasting targets and practical challenges.

The Prospective COVID-19 Post-Immunization Serological Cohort in Munich (KoCo-Impf): Risk Factors and Determinants of Immune Response in Healthcare Workers.

Antibody studies analyze immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 vaccination and infection, which is crucial for selecting vaccination strategies. In the KoCo-Impf study, conducted between 16 June and 16 December 2021, 6088 participants aged 18 and above from Munich were recruited to monitor antibodies, particularly in healthcare workers (HCWs) at higher risk of infection. Roche Elecsys® Anti-SARS-CoV-2 assays on dried blood spots were used to detect prior infections (anti-Nucleocapsid antibodies) and to indicate combinations of vaccinations/infections (anti-Spike antibodies). The anti-Spike seroprevalence was 94.7%, whereas, for anti-Nucleocapsid, it was only 6.9%. HCW status and contact with SARS-CoV-2-positive individuals were identified as infection risk factors, while vaccination and current smoking were associated with reduced risk. Older age correlated with higher anti-Nucleocapsid antibody levels, while vaccination and current smoking decreased the response. Vaccination alone or combined with infection led to higher anti-Spike antibody levels. Increasing time since the second vaccination, advancing age, and current smoking reduced the anti-Spike response. The cumulative number of cases in Munich affected the anti-Spike response over time but had no impact on anti-Nucleocapsid antibody development/seropositivity. Due to the significantly higher infection risk faced by HCWs and the limited number of significant risk factors, it is suggested that all HCWs require protection regardless of individual traits.

Linear correlation between patellar positioning and rotation of the lower limb in radiographic imaging: a 3D simulation study.

PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to quantify changes in rotation of the lower limb between image pairs based on patellar position. Additionally, we investigated the differences in alignment between centralized patellar and orthograde-positioned condyles. METHODS: Three-dimensional models of 30 paired legs were aligned in neutral position with condyles orthogonal to the sagittal axis and then rotated internally and externally in 1° increments up to 15°. For each rotation, the deviation of the patella and the subsequent changes in alignment parameters were calculated and plotted using a linear regression model. Differences between neutral position and patellar centralization were analysed qualitatively. RESULTS: A linear relationship between lower limb rotation and patellar position can be postulated. The regression model (R2 = 0.99) calculated a change of the patellar position of - 0.9 mm per degree rotation and alignment parameters showed small changes due to rotation. The physiological lateralization of the patella at neutral position was on average - 8.3 mm (SD: ± 5.4 mm). From neutral position, internal rotation that led to a centralized patella was on average - 9.8° (SD: ± 5.2°). CONCLUSION: The approximately linear dependence of the patellar position on rotation allows an inverse estimation of the rotation during image acquisition and its influence on the alignment parameters. As there is still no absolute consensus about lower limb positioning during image acquisition, data about the impact of a centralized patella compared to an orthograde condyle positioning on alignment parameters was provided. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: IV.

Significant changes in lower limb alignment due to flexion and rotation-a systematic 3D simulation of radiographic measurements.

BACKGROUND: Many radiographic lower limb alignment  measurements are dependent on patients' position, which makes a standardised image acquisition of long-leg radiographs (LLRs) essential for valid measurements. The purpose of this study was to investigate the influence of rotation and flexion of the lower limb on common radiological alignment parameters using three-dimensional (3D) simulation. METHODS: Joint angles and alignment parameters of 3D lower limb bone models (n = 60), generated from computed tomography (CT) scans, were assessed and projected into the coronal plane to mimic radiographic imaging. Bone models were subsequently rotated around the longitudinal mechanical axis up to 15° inward/outward and additionally flexed along the femoral intercondylar axis up to 30°. This resulted in 28 combinations of rotation and flexion for each leg. The results were statistically analysed on a descriptive level and using a linear mixed effects model. RESULTS: A total of 1680 simulations were performed. Mechanical axis deviation (MAD) revealed a medial deviation with increasing internal rotation and a lateral deviation with increasing external rotation. This effect increased significantly (p < 0.05) with combined flexion up to 30° flexion (- 25.4 mm to 25.2 mm). With the knee extended, the mean deviation of hip-knee-ankle angle (HKA) was small over all rotational steps but increased toward more varus/valgus when combined with flexion (8.4° to - 8.5°). Rotation alone changed the medial proximal tibial angle (MPTA) and the mechanical lateral distal femoral angle (mLDFA) in opposite directions, and the effects increased significantly (p < 0.05) when flexion was present. CONCLUSIONS: Axial rotation and flexion of the 3D lower limb has a huge impact on the projected two-dimensional alignment measurements in the coronal plane. The observed effects were small for isolated rotation or flexion, but became pronounced and clinically relevant when there was a combination of both. This must be considered when evaluating X-ray images. Extension deficits of the knee make LLR prone to error and this calls into question direct postoperative alignment controls. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: III (retrospective cohort study).

Radiographic cortical thickness parameters as predictors of rotational alignment in proximal tibial shaft fractures: a cadaveric study.

AIM: The treatment of tibial fractures with an intramedullary nail is an established procedure. However, torsional control remains challenging using intraoperatively diagnostic tools. Radiographic tools such as the Cortical Step Sign (CSS) and the Diameter Difference Sign (DDS) may serve as tools for diagnosing a relevant malrotation. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of torsional malalignment on CSS and DDS parameters and to construct a prognostic model to detect malalignment. METHODS: A proximal tibial shaft fracture was set in human tibiae. Torsion was set stepwise from 0° to 30° in external and internal torsion. Images were obtained with a C-arm and transferred to a PC for measuring the medical cortical thickness (MCT), lateral cortical thickness (LCT), tibial diameter (TD) in AP and the anterior cortical thickness (ACT) as well as the posterior cortical thickness (PCT) and the transverse diameter (TD) of the proximal and the distal main fragment. RESULTS: There were significant differences between the various degrees of torsion for each of the absolute values of the examined variables. The parameters with the highest correlation were TD, LCT and ACT. A model combining ACT, LCT, PCT and TD lateral was most suitable model in identifying torsional malalignment. The best prediction of clinically relevant torsional malalignment, namely 15°, was obtained with the TD and the ACT. CONCLUSION: This study shows that the CSS and DDS are useful tools for the intraoperative detection of torsional malalignment in proximal tibial shaft fractures and should be used to prevent maltorsion.

Early Mobilization Versus Splinting After Surgical Management of Distal Radius Fractures.

BACKGROUND: After the surgical management of distal radius fractures (DRF) in older patients, further treatment with a splint often follows. It is unclear whether early mobilization might be superior to splinting in this group of patients, as it is in others. In this prospective, randomized, controlled trial, we attempted to determine whether early mobilization yields better outcomes. METHODS: 50 patients over age 70 with DRF were included in the trial. Group A (the splint group) was treated with postoperative immobilization, group B with early mobilization. Clinical follow-up examinations were performed at 2, 6, and 12 weeks and at 6 and 12 months. X-rays were obtained preoperatively, postoperatively, at 6 weeks, and at 6 months. The primary outcome parameter was the modified Mayo Wrist Score (MMWS) at 6 weeks. RESULTS: At 6 weeks, the functional outcome was better to a statistically significant extent in group B (MMWS; 65/100 vs. 55/100 [q25 : 55/40 - q75 : 70/70; p = 0.025]). No difference between the two groups was demonstrable in their further clinical course. The estimated regression model revealed a statistically significant effect of the method of treatment (p = 0.023). There were no differences in hand strength or in x-ray findings. DISCUSION: Early mobilization is associated with better wrist function on initial follow-up, without any demonstrable disadvantage with respect to secondary dislocation. The psychological benefit and protective function of wrist splinting in patients who are in danger of falling should nonetheless be investigated in further studies.